Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Dr. Thornburg describes “Red Queens” as two companies that are in fierce competition to gain a market share (Laureate, 2014g). At times the competition may not be between two companies but rather two different mediums for distributing content. One example of this is the distribution of video content. For years the dominant medium has been DVD. The evolutionary development has led to Blu-ray. The “Red Queen” aspect of this comes with the entrance of online repositories of content that can be streamed through high speed internet connections and accessed with a variety of devices. Each of these methods has their own set of pros and cons. DVDs and Blu-ray Disks require a compatible drive to read but do not require a stable high speed internet connection. Online streaming services can be used with a variety of devices but must have access to a high speed internet connection. Many of these services will allow you to download the content to your device storage. This process still requires a high speed connection but allows the user to take their device to another location where they may not have internet and still access their content. Another difference between the two mediums is the long term viability of the content. With a DVD or Blu-ray disk the content remains available as long as the disk remains physically viable. In other words, you can use the disk until your children, pets, or other influence damage the physical disk. With online streaming companies you have access to the content as long as the online company continues to function.

Another concept seen in the distribution of video content is that of “Increasing Returns”. Dr. Thornburg describes it this way, “Increasing Returns – Two innovations hit the market at about the same time. By chance, one technology gets locked in and dries the other to extinction” (Laureate, 2014e). We can observe this through the variety of online streaming video companies. Amazon, Google Play, iTunes, Vudu, and others provide the same content at similar costs. Each of these companies require the content to be accessed through their software. Consumers choose their preferred option based on features of the software and the compatible devices that can be used to view the content. This arena of competition will be interesting to watch. Only the future will reveal if there will be a single company that rises to the top as others become extinct or if there will be a wild card technology that will make them all obsolete.

References

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014e). David Thornburg: Increasing returns [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014g). David Thornburg: Red queens [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Thornburg, D. (2013d). Red queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive technologies are those that interrupt the normal evolutionary path of a particular technology. They may leap ahead in capabilities or provide a different trajectory entirely. Dr. Thornburg uses the example of the transistor as a disruptive technology that interrupted the evolutionary path of the vacuum tube (Laureate, 2014a). In this example the initial researchers discovered capabilities similar to the vacuum tube while interacting with a particular element. These similar capabilities without the fragile nature of the vacuum tube resulted in the ultimate replacement of vacuum tube with transistors. It is worth mentioning that vacuum tubes are still being used in some high end audio equipment and in some guitar processors and amplifiers. However, these limited uses may soon become obsolete as well as digital modeling increases in quality and becomes more accepted in the industry.

As a futurist or one who is studying emerging technologies it is important to look for potential disruptive technological innovations. Some emerging technologies that could ultimately become disruptive include Google Glass and Sixth Sense technologies. Google Glass allows the user to interact with a device that is worn similar to a pair of glasses without the actual lenses. There is a small prisim in the upper range of view that allows the wearer to view an overlay of digital content (Google Glass, n.d.). The wearer can interact with the content through their smartphone or the touch pad on the side of the device. Sixth sense devices are a combination of a small projector, camera, and other sensors that allow the user to interact with real objects and the digital world simultaneously (TED India, 2009). The user is able to interact using their hands and other objects and have digital content projected onto real objects. Both of these technologies have the potential to totally transform the way humans interact with the digital world. At this point in their development there is not a widely available stable device that is ready to be distributed to the masses. However, the foundational technology is in place ready to evolve and totally change the way we interact with computers. Even though the future of these technologies is unclear and the current state is not one that threatens to replace current technologies they are both worth watching.

Reference

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014a). David Thornburg: Disruptive technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Google Glass. (n.d.). Retrieved Janurary 23, 2016, from http://www.google.com/glass/start/

TED India. (Producer). (2009). The thrilling potential of SixthSense technology [Video file]. Retrieved June 7, 2014, from http://www.ted.com/talks/pranav_mistry_the_thrilling_potential_of_sixthsense_technology.html 

The emergence of new technologies often echoes the technologies of the past. At times these new technologies are designed to meet the same universal needs as those in the past. Dr. Thornburg describes the rhymes of history as, “The affect or impact of a new development rekindles something from the distant past” (Laureate, 2014h). As I looked through my school district’s twitter feed this past feed I noticed this tweet picturing young students practicing their handwriting using iPads.

O.A .Fleming PreK students are learning letters & practicing handwriting skills on the ipads. #BISDpride #OAFleming pic.twitter.com/MgVsaXRf1M

— Christie Bray Burns (@ChristieBurnsEd) January 7, 2016

As I looked at this picture I thought years ago young children would be doing the same thing using a slate and a piece of chalk. Now before anyone gets mad and starts listing all the advanced capabilities of an iPad hear me out. Sometimes you simply need a way to practice the fine motor skills needed to write in cursive. These skills will often need to be practiced over and over.

While paper may not be so hard to come by in or modern times we have hopefully learned to conserve it when possible. So in addition to its many other capabilities the iPad can successfully be used to provide a tool for students to practice their writing skills while limiting the use of natural resources.

Reference

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014h). David Thornburg: Rhymes of history [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Emerging Technologies Tetrad

At the time of this publication we have not yet developed the ability to create an augmented reality like the ones depicted in science fiction. The holodeck of Star Trek Next Generation’s Enterprise is still considerably far off in the distance. However, augmented reality is currently considered by many to be an emerging technology. One way to examine the impact of a technology as it emerges is to use McLuhan’s tetrad (Thornburg, 2013). To further understand the nature of augmented reality emerging into our society we will ask questions centered on each area of the tetrad.

1. Extension or enhancement – How will augmented reality extend or enhance the natural abilities or functions of the user? Augmented reality increases the connection between the real world and the digital world. “The result is a more effective demonstration of spatial and temporal concepts, as well as of the contextual relationships among real and virtual objects” (Billinghurst & Duenser, 2012 p. 56). Interacting with three dimensional objects in a three dimensional work space is simply more natural.
2. Obsolescence – What technologies or process could become obsolete as augmented reality grows in popularity? As this technology grows and continues to demonstrate its effectiveness as an educational tool using two dimensional modeling could become a thing of the past. Imagine using augmented reality to enter a virtual world where you can easily experiment with various engineering and design principles. This type of learning environment is one where computer screens and paper become a thing of the past.
3. Retrieval – The augmented reality can be seen as a revival or return to hands on learning activities. Often these are major features in early learning but seem to dwindle as the materials needed become more complex. Through augmented reality the size or complexity of the objects being manipulated is simply a matter of programing and design. This lowers the cost and even the space needed to a more reasonable level.
4. Reversal – What factors or developments could trigger a reversal of augmented reality? One possible catalyst that could trigger the reversal of augmented reality is 3D printing. If the cost of 3D printing continues to drop as the possible size of items created then it is possible that some aspects of augmented reality could be replaced with actual reality.

5.       

Reference

Billinghurst, M., & Duenser, A. (2012). Augmented reality in the classroom. Computer, (7), 56-63.

Thornburg, D. (2013e). Emerging technologies and McLuhan's laws of media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Identifying and Emerged Technology

In 1999 I began working in K12 education as a teacher and administrator. Through my experiences in first private schools then in public schools I have been able to observe the emergence of various learning and instructional technologies. Dr. Thornburg views emergent technologies as, “the very onset of discovery and demonstration of a technology well in advance of its use in products” (Thornburg, 2013e p. 1). Others may argue that technology remains emergent while it grows to a place where it becomes a “must have” for individuals in a particular field. Regardless of the definition of an emerging technology the term emerged technology should be applied to a technology that is clearly past the point of emerging.

A technology that has emerged in the past few years in the field of K12 education is the use of data projectors combined with document cameras being controlled by smartboards and computers for the purpose of delivering interactive and flexible lessons. While this technology is not new it has become expected in elementary and secondary classrooms. This state of being the norm rather than the exception in K12 classrooms is what makes this technology clearly emerged.

Some of the problems or challenges facing the implementation of this technology have been training and initial expense. Without training, practice, and real world experience teachers did not actually use any of the additional features or tools that previous technologies had. This created scenarios where instructors were using document cameras, video projectors, and computers to accomplish the same task that was previously done with a simple overhead projector. Another challenge was the initial cost. It is difficult to justify spending money on technologies that teachers do not yet know how to use to their full potential.

With each new presentation technology that teachers are given there seem to be three or four more cables or cords that must be connected. This is one of the pitfalls of this technology. Instructors who do not understand how the setup should work will not use it because getting everything to work properly is too difficult a task. This could be improved by adding wireless options that could be used to eliminate the majority of the cords. This technology already exists but is probably not being used because of increased cost.

The district I currently work in primarily uses the Lumens Ladybug document cameras. More information about these is available at http://www.lumens.com.tw/product_1_1.php?new_id=2&big_id=1&pageNum_news=0

Reference

Thornburg, D. (2013e). When is a technology emergent? Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Student Engagement (Final Project Video)

Moving Toward Dynamic Technologies

At this point I can see that as an educator I am strong in the dynamic area of content creation or generation. I am weaker in the dynamic areas of communication and collaboration. Currently I work in a school with limited student access to technology. However, I have had primarily positive experiences in my own graduate studies. These positive experiences have developed a desire to use more dynamic technologies with my instruction.