Red Queens and Increasing Returns

Dr. Thornburg describes “Red Queens” as two companies that are in fierce competition to gain a market share (Laureate, 2014g). At times the competition may not be between two companies but rather two different mediums for distributing content. One example of this is the distribution of video content. For years the dominant medium has been DVD. The evolutionary development has led to Blu-ray. The “Red Queen” aspect of this comes with the entrance of online repositories of content that can be streamed through high speed internet connections and accessed with a variety of devices. Each of these methods has their own set of pros and cons. DVDs and Blu-ray Disks require a compatible drive to read but do not require a stable high speed internet connection. Online streaming services can be used with a variety of devices but must have access to a high speed internet connection. Many of these services will allow you to download the content to your device storage. This process still requires a high speed connection but allows the user to take their device to another location where they may not have internet and still access their content. Another difference between the two mediums is the long term viability of the content. With a DVD or Blu-ray disk the content remains available as long as the disk remains physically viable. In other words, you can use the disk until your children, pets, or other influence damage the physical disk. With online streaming companies you have access to the content as long as the online company continues to function.

Another concept seen in the distribution of video content is that of “Increasing Returns”. Dr. Thornburg describes it this way, “Increasing Returns – Two innovations hit the market at about the same time. By chance, one technology gets locked in and dries the other to extinction” (Laureate, 2014e). We can observe this through the variety of online streaming video companies. Amazon, Google Play, iTunes, Vudu, and others provide the same content at similar costs. Each of these companies require the content to be accessed through their software. Consumers choose their preferred option based on features of the software and the compatible devices that can be used to view the content. This arena of competition will be interesting to watch. Only the future will reveal if there will be a single company that rises to the top as others become extinct or if there will be a wild card technology that will make them all obsolete.

References

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014e). David Thornburg: Increasing returns [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014g). David Thornburg: Red queens [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Thornburg, D. (2013d). Red queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Disruptive Technologies

Disruptive technologies are those that interrupt the normal evolutionary path of a particular technology. They may leap ahead in capabilities or provide a different trajectory entirely. Dr. Thornburg uses the example of the transistor as a disruptive technology that interrupted the evolutionary path of the vacuum tube (Laureate, 2014a). In this example the initial researchers discovered capabilities similar to the vacuum tube while interacting with a particular element. These similar capabilities without the fragile nature of the vacuum tube resulted in the ultimate replacement of vacuum tube with transistors. It is worth mentioning that vacuum tubes are still being used in some high end audio equipment and in some guitar processors and amplifiers. However, these limited uses may soon become obsolete as well as digital modeling increases in quality and becomes more accepted in the industry.

As a futurist or one who is studying emerging technologies it is important to look for potential disruptive technological innovations. Some emerging technologies that could ultimately become disruptive include Google Glass and Sixth Sense technologies. Google Glass allows the user to interact with a device that is worn similar to a pair of glasses without the actual lenses. There is a small prisim in the upper range of view that allows the wearer to view an overlay of digital content (Google Glass, n.d.). The wearer can interact with the content through their smartphone or the touch pad on the side of the device. Sixth sense devices are a combination of a small projector, camera, and other sensors that allow the user to interact with real objects and the digital world simultaneously (TED India, 2009). The user is able to interact using their hands and other objects and have digital content projected onto real objects. Both of these technologies have the potential to totally transform the way humans interact with the digital world. At this point in their development there is not a widely available stable device that is ready to be distributed to the masses. However, the foundational technology is in place ready to evolve and totally change the way we interact with computers. Even though the future of these technologies is unclear and the current state is not one that threatens to replace current technologies they are both worth watching.

Reference

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014a). David Thornburg: Disruptive technologies [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.

Google Glass. (n.d.). Retrieved Janurary 23, 2016, from http://www.google.com/glass/start/

TED India. (Producer). (2009). The thrilling potential of SixthSense technology [Video file]. Retrieved June 7, 2014, from http://www.ted.com/talks/pranav_mistry_the_thrilling_potential_of_sixthsense_technology.html 

The emergence of new technologies often echoes the technologies of the past. At times these new technologies are designed to meet the same universal needs as those in the past. Dr. Thornburg describes the rhymes of history as, “The affect or impact of a new development rekindles something from the distant past” (Laureate, 2014h). As I looked through my school district’s twitter feed this past feed I noticed this tweet picturing young students practicing their handwriting using iPads.

O.A .Fleming PreK students are learning letters & practicing handwriting skills on the ipads. #BISDpride #OAFleming pic.twitter.com/MgVsaXRf1M

— Christie Bray Burns (@ChristieBurnsEd) January 7, 2016

As I looked at this picture I thought years ago young children would be doing the same thing using a slate and a piece of chalk. Now before anyone gets mad and starts listing all the advanced capabilities of an iPad hear me out. Sometimes you simply need a way to practice the fine motor skills needed to write in cursive. These skills will often need to be practiced over and over.

While paper may not be so hard to come by in or modern times we have hopefully learned to conserve it when possible. So in addition to its many other capabilities the iPad can successfully be used to provide a tool for students to practice their writing skills while limiting the use of natural resources.

Reference

Laureate Education (Producer). (2014h). David Thornburg: Rhymes of history [Video file]. Baltimore, MD: Author.